September 2026 was a month of reversals. Cocoa started at an 11-month high and finished near a 2-month low. Arabica fell to its lowest level since the summer before a late bounce, while robusta held up better than both. Below is our summary of what moved prices, based on exchange settlements from 31 August to 1 October.
The numbers
- Cocoa, ICE New York December: 6,771 USD/t on 31 August, 5,381 USD/t on 1 October (about −20%).
- Arabica, ICE "C" December: 311.50 US cents/lb on 31 August, 288.25 on 1 October (about −7.5%), after touching a three-month low near 278 in the third week.
- Robusta, ICE London November: 3,529 USD/t on 28 August, 3,448 USD/t on 1 October (about −2%).
- EUR/USD: from 1.16 to 1.13 as the US Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September, which softened the fall in euro terms.
Cocoa: weak future crop, heavy present supply
The late-August rally was driven by fears for the 2026/27 West African crop: Ghana's COCOBOD put next season at 650,000 tonnes (−13%), early Ivorian surveys pointed to around 1.8 million tonnes (−18%), and a strong El Niño raised the risk of a dry Harmattan later in the season. Speculative funds were heavily short, so part of the move was short covering.
September reminded the market how much cocoa is available today. Côte d'Ivoire held its farmgate price at 1,200 CFA/kg, less than half last season's opening level, last season's shipments finished almost 20% higher, and certified stocks on ICE New York climbed to a two-and-a-quarter-year high of nearly 3.5 million bags. Weak European grindings (−4.6% in the second quarter) and Lindt lowering its growth outlook added to the pressure, with a 7.7% fall on a single day in mid-September.
At the end of the month, slow Ivorian arrivals, a producer strike around Daloa and Ghana's higher farmgate price, which revives smuggling worries, stopped the slide for now.
Coffee: a record Brazilian crop meets very low stocks
Arabica was pulled lower by supply estimates. StoneX raised Brazil's 2026/27 crop to a record 77.2 million bags, Brazilian exports hit a record 4.16 million bags in August, and the ICO expects the first global surplus in five years. A stronger dollar after the Fed decision added to the selling.
The floor came from the warehouses. Certified arabica stocks fell to a 27-year low of about 218,000 bags in mid-September before Brazilian deliveries started to rebuild them, and Colombia's output is still recovering from the August earthquake. Colombian Milds kept trading roughly 65 to 70 US cents/lb above the New York contract, an unusually wide premium.
Robusta was the steadiest of the three. Vietnamese exports were up more than 15% in the first nine months of the year and certified robusta stocks reached a 10-month high, yet the contract lost only about 2% over the month as Vietnam's new harvest had not yet started.
What we are watching in October
- West African weather and the pace of Ivorian main-crop arrivals.
- Third-quarter cocoa grind data, due mid-October.
- Flowering rains in Brazil and the result of Brazil's presidential election on 4 October.
- The start of Vietnam's new robusta harvest.
- Port congestion and documentation ahead of the EUDR start on 30 December.
Prices are exchange settlements and are indicative; they exclude physical differentials, freight and financing. This note is for information only and is not investment advice. Approved partners can follow our current lots and positions on the MD Trade Market.